Creeping Inexorably Toward A Worthwhile Sub-Heading.
Wednesday, September 24, 2003
Fun With Shawn
Tonight's start by Shawn Estes will mark only the sixth time in 28 starts that he will go into the game with a better ERA than his opponent, and the first time since May 30. Here are the previous five starts with the ERA of Estes and his opponent entering the game, along with the game's final score, just for kicks.
April 15 vs. Cincinatti, Estes 5.40, Graves 7.59, Cubs win 11-1
April 20 at Pittsburgh, Estes 3.50, Fogg 3.66, Cubs lose 8-2
May 7 vs. Milwaukee, Estes 6.53, Rusch 7.18, Cubs win 2-1
May 18, Estes 5.08, Simontacchi 7.41, Cubs lose 6-3
May 30, Estes 4.88, Miller 5.34, Cubs lose 9-1
No predictive value here (obviously). I just thought it was fun to look at.
It's interesting to note that among this group, the only pitcher who currently has an ERA worse than Estes is Glendon Rusch, who is currently at 6.67 (a big improvement, by the way, from his mid-season nadir of 8.61 on June 18, thanks to an ERA of exactly 3.00 since coming back from triple-A and the disabled list at the end of August). Note, also, that there is only one of these previous five games where you can say that Estes ERA was not only better than his opponent's, but was decent, or even acceptable, on its own. And he got pummelled in that game. In fact, the three games where Estes ERA was just bad and not totally appalling, he got rocked. The two games where his ERA was larger than Rush Limbaugh's eyes at an all you can eat buffet, he only allows one run. Whatever.
I've stopped trying to figure this guy out, and simply decided that a victory in any game he starts is a bonus. And you know what? Cubs fans are due for a bonus.