I have no desire to talk about the Mark Prior situation. There's no analysis to be made, no new facts to report, just an opportunity for Sturm und Drang, and if you've read enough of my stuff, you'll know it's not my forte. Yet, someone out there is gonna yank my blogging license if I don't spew forth on the subject, so here goes.

The waiting is the hardest part
Every day you see one more card
You take it on faith, you take it to the heart
The waiting is the hardest part

-Tom Petty

There's no doubt I'm disturbed, and the thing I find most upsetting is the lack of resolution. I'm with the Sloth when he says that there would be a degree of comfort to be had in some sort of catastrophic injury - at least we'd know what we were dealing with. But nobody knows what's going on, including the various physicians involved, so all we can do is wait, and as Mr. Petty said, that's the hardest part.

You want a ray of sunshine, though? Look at the way the team is handling this. No, I don't mean the press leaks intended to soften the blow of any negative news, I mean the fact that the club finally broke out the kid gloves for somebody, and for Prior in particular.

Sure, it could have been done earlier - say, sometime last year - but this speaks to me of an understanding. Namely, that 2004 is not the only year for this team. Yes, they have a fine chance to compete for the postseason and to do well once they reach it, and there's no doubt that for that possibility to remain a probability, Prior must be a part of the equation.

Yet the Cubs aren't forcing the issue. Don't misunderstand, I think Jim Hendry and crew will do anything they think is right to bolster the club's chances. However, sending The Franchise out to wreck himself in the early going isn't one of those things. Their actions imply that the front office firmly believes they will be in the hunt for years to come. Winning now is important, but it seems the Cubs believe that using Prior to win once now could cost them years of winning down the road. The fact that they understand this and are willing to act accordingly, to get that big prize, to be that dynasty, should put a smile on every Cub fan's face.

So, to all of us Chicken Littles, yes, the sky may fall this time around. Our title hopes for 2004 may come crashing down around our ears. But unlike past seasons, we won't be going away. 2005 will not become 1986, much as it may feel that way now. The Chicago Cubs are a force to be reckoned with, and will remain that way for years. I suggest we get used to it.

It's later than I had hoped, but here's the second part of the Astros piece, and the final part of the Know Your Enemy series. I've enjoyed writing and learning about the teams the Cubs will be primarily competing against this season, and I hope it's been fun and useful for you as well. So, without further ado, enjoy!

Starting Pitchers

The Houston front office correctly identified that the team's biggest issue in 2003 was depth in the starting rotation. It wasn't difficult to see. Having to give 31 starts to Jeriome (think "Favre") Robertson and 19 starts to Ron Villone should force any General Manager into action (this means you, Dan O'Brien!).

Luckily, the Astros had someone in mind who could help. Having already expressed an interest in coming home, Andy Pettitte was wooed with thoughts of more family time, sleeping in his own bed, and great, heaping gobs of cash. The Yankees eventually offered more of the latter, but it was too little too late, and Pettitte signed a three-year deal with Houston for $31.5M. It may be a bit too much money, and I'm certainly wary of the structure, but the upgrade was necessary and the PR is great. The question is, what will the club be getting for their money?

That's a whole bunch 'o numbers, so let me highlight some of my favorite points:

• I'm floored by how consistent Pettitte's hit rates are.
  
  
• His walk rates have been very solid and consistent since 2001.
  
  
• I don't have an explanation for this, so if anyone can think of why this would be, let me know: The more groundballs Pettitte gives up, the higher his home run rate and the higher his ERA. Wha?!?
  

One can't look at this chart and not see that Pettitte is a very consistent, solid performer. He should give the Astros 200 innings of above league average work, but I don't know what to make of the relationship to his GB/FB ratio and his HR/9. There is a chapter in the Great Baseball Book of Lore that says left-handed hitters adore pitches down in the zone. If there is any truth to this, pitches that might induce grounders for most hitters could give port-sided batters the opportunity to use Yankee Stadium's short right field porch. It's an interesting theory, and there's an easy way to check it out by looking at some three-year splits from 2001-2003.

Pardon the mixing of rate stats for the homers, but I couldn't find them in matching sets. In any case, it shows pretty clearly that the theory isn't viable. There is a very slight advantage in AB/HR for lefties in general, but since the theory is that they take advantage of Pettitte in Yankee Stadium, his extra low dinger rates at home put the kibosh on that idea.

In fact, while I still have no explanation for the relationship between Pettitte's GB/FB and HR/9, the above table adds validity to the idea that the benefits derived from having Houston's far better defense behind him will be sufficiently countered by increased home run rates (made potentially more daunting by the Crawford Boxes in left) as to cause them to cancel each other out, thus giving Houston about the same pitcher the Yankees have had since 1995. Considering who he's replacing, that's not bad at all.

There were rumors all along of a possible side effect to the Pettitte signing, and the speculation quickly became reality when Roger Clemens decided to end his multi-week retirement and join his friend for one last season.

This was a coup for the Astros on many levels. As a PR move, it never hurts to bring in a first ballot Hall of Famer whom many regard to be the best pitcher of his generation. Whether he's replacing Robertson or Villone, you can bet he'll perform better than them, even at 41. And while his fellow ex-Yankee might be slightly overcompensated, there's no doubt that the Rocket's $5M, mostly deferred, salary is well below what he would fetch on the open market, even in today's down cycle.

It's fairly easy to overstate the positives of this deal, but it's not stretching things to say Clemens makes this rotation substantially better. He can still pitch, and while he's not the same fearsome fireballer he was in his younger days, you won't find hitters anxiously lining up to get a crack at him. Like the Cubs' later acquisition of Greg Maddux, this move pays dividends all over the place. But the heftiest payout will come in the win column.

Not that it makes a difference over the course of a season, but it's refreshing to see Roy Oswalt get the opening day nod despite the fervor over the acquisition of his rotation mates. It would have been very easy to hand the ball to Pettitte or Clemens, and no one would have argued. Whether conscious or not, it's an acknowledgement of the fact that Oswalt is the only irreplaceable member of the starting staff.

Of course, that status makes his fragility all the more worrisome. He says he's healthy, he says he's strong, but until he gets out there for 30+ starts again, folks will keep asking questions about his groin, and in my book, there's no such thing as a good groin question.

Oswalt has a career ERA of 2.92, and I challenge anyone to find a legitimate reason to believe anyone else on this staff will approach that number in 2004. He's the real deal, but until he's able to stay healthy for an extended period of time, baseball fans on the Gulf Coast will be kept awake at night by more than oppressive humidity.

When you can legitimately say Wade Miller is your fourth starter, you've got a nice rotation put together. He had a rough first half in 2003, but figured things out after the All-Star Break, improving his ERA from the 4.66 he posted through mid-July, to 3.28 in the season's final weeks.

For some reason, over the last three years Miller has been significantly better at the end of the season. Below are his monthly splits from 2001-2003.

That's just a crazy split. The only aspect of his game that doesn't significantly improve during the final two months is his walk rate, but complaining about that is like whining about the size of the cherry on your hot fudge sundae. If Miller ever figures out how to throw like that over an entire season, he'll be a monster.

Bringing up the rear of the rotation will be Tim Redding, and while he might not be mentioned in the "best fifth starter in baseball" discussion with the likes of Carlos Zambrano and Rich Harden, he's certainly no slouch. In his first full season of starting in the Majors, he performed admirably with 176 IP, 179 H, 16 HR, 65 BB, 116 SO, and a 3.68 ERA. The only thing that truly troubles me is the strikeout rate, which is low compared to the rest of his career (his minor league rate was 11 SO/9, and up until last year he had a rate of 8.2 SO/9 in the Majors). I think Redding should do well, but be wary of that K rate. It could be a silent alarm.

Bullpen

The Astros will be taking 12 pitchers to Houston, and while I would normally deride such roster construction, with Jimy Williams' quick hook it's not such a bad idea. The Astros threw more innings out of the bullpen in 2003 than any team but the Rangers, and in 2002 were only outpaced by the Reds. His last three years at the Red Sox helm, his teams came in second, first, and third in bullpen innings respectively. So while his starting staff is better this year, with Jimy's past usage patterns it may be better to be safe than sorry.

Octavio Dotel has been one of the most dominating relievers in the majors since 2001, and with the offseason trade of Billy Wagner, he'll now be the team's closer. This is excellent news for the National League. Not because of Octavio's previous poor showing in the job in 2000, but because he'll no longer be shutting down opposing offenses in the game critical situations he's excelled in for the last three years. Of course, I wouldn't advocate retaining Wagner, he was expensive, and losing his salary allowed for the moves they made to shore up the starting staff. But there will be consequences, and one of those will be using less effective pitchers in the seventh and eighth innings. If it were left to me, someone like Brad Lidge would be throwing in the ninth with a lead, while Dotel would be used for multiple innings late in tight games. But I'm not affiliated with the Astros, so I'm thrilled to see Dotel closing.

Speaking of Brad Lidge, he had a very nice 2003, striking out more than a man an inning with a solid 3.60 ERA in 85 innings. Other than a super rough August - where he gave up four of his six home runs allowed, and sported a 10.03 ERA over 11.2 innings - and a mediocre June, he was on top of things all year. He should continue to be a force for Houston in 2004, and if he's more consistent, he has a chance to be the Astros most valuable reliever.

Although he'll probably be used as a bridge to Lidge and Dotel, there's reason to be concerned about Ricky Stone. His ERA remained nearly identical between 2002 and 2003 (3.61 vs. 3.69), but his strikeout rates plummeted last year from 7.34 per 9 innings to 5.10 per 9 innings. Granted, this could be a sample size blip, but if you see him getting lit this season, don't say I didn't warn you.

Dan Miceli should get an endorsement contract with Bekins. That's the least you can wish for a guy who spent time with four different teams in 2003. Once he settled in Houston, though, he had a nice little third of a season. However, he's been just a smidge below league average over his career, and at 33 in a good hitter's park, I wouldn't expect a repeat of his 2.10 ERA in 30 innings with the Astros. He should probably be in the back half of the bullpen.

While he's yet to turn his minor league promise into Major League success, the chance to work out his kinks in the bullpen may be just what Brandon Duckworth needs. His biggest issue appears to be an extreme propensity for giving up the longball, and in the change in his GB/FB ratios over the years, one can see a significant impact on his success.

By golly, if I didn't know any better, I'd say he needs to throw more ground balls. Some pitchers can be flyball types and do well, Barry Zito being an excellent example of the breed, but it's obvious to me that Duckworth is not one of those guys. If he can learn to get the grounders he got early in his career, Houston will have a nice young pitcher on their hands.

There's not a lot to recommend him except for his age and his ERA, but Mike Gallo will be this season's sole left-handed member of the Astro bullpen. Other than a very good 88.1 innings in the Sally League in 2002, he's never been particularly impressive, and even that year can be explained away by the fact that he was a 25 year-old in A-ball. Yet, he managed to keep his ERA at an even 3.00 over 30 innings with the big club last year, so without any other left-handers of interest around, he'll be getting the gig.

The battle for the last bullpen spot will be waged between Jared Fernandez, Jeriome Robertson, Kirk Saarloos, and Brandon Backe. All have spent time in the majors - the first three with Houston and the last with the Devil Rays - but none have done much to distinguish themselves. The favorites look to be Backe and Fernandez, but if the choice of your twelfth pitcher becomes a significant story in your season, your team has plenty of other issues to deal with.

The Bench

Anyone for a "Free Jason Lane" movement? The kid has decent plate discipline, good power, and some speed. He's 27, plays a solid center field, and he's done nothing but hit everywhere he's been. Yet standing in his way is the sad, floating apparition of Craig Biggio, desperately clinging to his baseball existence. Perhaps it's best to think of this as a movement to free both players, allowing one his just deserts on earth, and releasing the other to his eternal hardball reward.

Nothing so maudlin for Orlando Palmeiro, the Astro's fifth outfielder. He's a solid choice for the role, and while he certainly brings no power to the equation - having five of nine seasons with OBP's higher than his SLG - he does get on base and provide good defense throughout the outfield. As long as he doesn't pinch hit in situations that require some pop, he'll be an asset.

This is not that case with Jose Vizcaino, a man the Astros should learn to live without. He's no longer young, and he was never particularly good, so continuing to hang on to him makes little sense, particularly at the ridiculous price of $1.2M. At least the first two years of the love affair with Orlando Merced were reasonably productive, but there's no such history here. I can only hope that Vizcaino bakes a mean cheesecake, because I can't think of a good baseball reason to keep him around.

Not happy with candidates like John Valentin and Eric Bruntlett, the Astros struck a deal with the Yankees to bring Mike Lamb over to fill that last backup infield spot. There are worse choices, but if there's a danger that comes with his signing, it's the fact that he hits from the left side and plays third base. He's a decent choice to come off the bench, but if Jimy William's develops a Blumian fascination with a platoon at the hot corner, this deal could turn into subtraction by addition.

Yet another former denizen of a remote Chilean island, Raul Chavez will perform the backup catcher duties as one of the rare deviations from the original formula. He was part of a small batch of switch hitters the good doctor cooked up after seeing a couple of outings by Damon Berryhill. Since the results didn't vary, and the trouble in concocting was considerable, I understand the recipe was abandoned.

The Gist

This is a good team. There are five hitters capable of having seasons ranging from good to great, the bullpen is solid, and the starting staff will be formidable. There are holes in the lineup, a couple stiffs on the bench, and not all the relievers are world-beaters, but as has been said here repeatedly and in other spaces as well, there is no team in this division without significant flaws.

I've become convinced that whoever does win this division - and to be fair, the conversation only includes the Cardinals, Astros, and Cubs - it will not be the team with the fewest weaknesses, but the team whose strengths remain most intact. On that score, the Astros points of concern reside in the decline processes of some offensive stars, and the fragility of their best pitcher. If Bagwell or Kent fall off a cliff, or Oswalt misses significant time, Houston's chances will be severely damaged.

Assuming no setbacks, this is the most balanced team in the NL Central. The remaining question is whether that balance will win out over the offensive advantage held by the Cardinals and the pitching advantage held by the Cubs. And that, folks, is why they play the games, and why we watch them. Happy Opening Day!

Looks like the long running saga of Juan Cruz is over, at least in a Cub uniform. According to the announcers on the Oakland feed of today's Cub vs. A's tilt, a deal has gone down with the Braves sending Cruz and lefty Steve Smyth to Atlanta, while the Cubs get back minor league lefty Andy Pratt and minor league infielder Richard Lewis.

This trade is simpler than it appears at first. Richard Lewis is a banjo hitting infielder who, in his first taste of AA at age 23 last year, hit a scintillating .239/.305/.341 in 460 at bats. I can't find any note of what position he plays, but with that hitting line, does it matter? The Braves get Steve Smyth, and if you're not already familiar with his worth, last year, at age 25, saw him sport a 5.23 ERA at Iowa in 130.2 innings, with 143 H, 16 HR, 72 BB, and 98 SO.

So, this boils down to an old-fashioned challenge trade of pitching prospects, Cruz vs. Pratt. We already have a pretty good idea of what Cruz brings to the table, so what about our new guy? Well, he looks pretty solid. As a 24 year old in AAA last year, he put up a 3.40 ERA in 156 innings, with 146 H, 10 HR, 77 BB, and 161 SO. The trouble I see is the walk rate, at nearly four and a half per nine.

I've yet to see or hear any information on how the Cubs intend to use Pratt, but my assumption would be that he would be given an opportunity to win a bullpen spot, or even the temporary fifth starter's job.

This deal could work out alright, but my initial impression is disappointment. I had thought it would be possible to package Cruz in a mid-season deal to get some needed reinforcements, but perhaps the frustration of watching Juan constantly implode was more than Jim Hendry could bear, and he dealt him before he lost value. I'll be looking for what the motivation was as more information becomes available, but for now, consider me unimpressed.

UPDATE: Here's the link to the press release from the Cubs. No new information here, except for a rundown of some of the spring stats for the players.

Prospects were rosy for the 2003 Astros as they rounded the stretch. After the games of September 20th were played, Houston held a 1.5 game lead on Chicago, with eight games remaining for the Texans, and seven for their rivals. Their destiny was in their hands, and that's all a team can ask for as a season winds down.

Unfortunately for Houston's fans, that destiny was slippery as a greased pig in a thunderstorm. Two days later, the standings were even, and five days later, the Cubs clinched the division. The Astros had been in the driver's seat, but while they were checking the map to the postseason, they drove right into a tree.

Like every team in the NL Central, the Astros had been flawed, and they set about in the offseason to mend what they could. They've made significant changes, and on the cusp of a new year in baseball, there's every reason to believe that Houston will be right in the middle of things when this September 20th rolls around.

Starting Lineup

Like a Superball in a room with cobblestone walls, Richard Hidalgo's career has lacked any predictable direction.

That season in 2000 is still the yardstick Hidalgo is measured by, fairly or not, and the inconsistency following that monstrous year has contributed to a perception in the league and in the Astro's organization of inflated worth. But let's get some stuff straight.

His 2001 season was solid, if unspectacular, and well worth the $3.5M he was paid, any disappointment being a byproduct of huge expectations after a career year. 2002 was marred by a hip injury that often kept him out of the lineup, and rendered him ineffective when he played. The cost was $5.5M, and while that's a lot of money for sub-replacement level performance, the reasons behind the decline were transitory.

Although the offensive numbers aren't quite as gaudy, because of some very fine defensive work in right, Hidalgo's 2003 season was worth the same number of wins (9.6) as his breakout 2000 season, and at a cost of $8.5M. To compare, Sammy Sosa made $15M in 2002, while supplying 9.3 wins. Obviously, Sosa brings other qualities to the table that justify the expenditure, particularly in team marketing terms, but it's hard to look at that information and not think Hidalgo has, overall, been something of a bargain.

But besides the hefty dose of flakiness, I'm struck by how young Hidalgo is. I've been under the mistaken impression that he's in his early thirties, but seeing that he's in the midst of his peak years changes my thoughts on him somewhat. True, he could be one of those freaks that burn bright, hot, and early, but it seems more likely that he established a performance level last season that he should be able to sustain.

However, his PECOTA projection sees a pretty sizeable dropoff, with a midpoint of .277/.358/.495 and an EQA of .288 to go with it. His injury history likely contributes here, and while this is not good news for the Astros, I'm not so down on Hidalgo. He may not put up last year's numbers, but I think he's more likely to land in between 2003's production and the projection above. Houston needs that performance, too, as they already have much of their offensive hopes wrapped up in players who have entered a decline phase, and to have one of their younger offensive lights start to burn out would be devastating to the team's chances.

The direction of Craig Biggio's career is considerably clearer, and unfortunately, it's all downhill from here. In fact, it's been downhill for a couple of years now, despite Jeff Bagwell's protestations to the contrary.

Although he's always been one of those players I love to hate, with his pine-tar-slathered batting helmet and Scrappy-Doo attitude, I'm genuinely saddened to see him fall so far so fast. One of the great pleasures of having an adversary like Biggio is the overwhelming joy of beating him. I always felt, whether at the game or watching on TV, that when he did something to beat the Cubs he was looking at me, straight at me, and laughing.

He was the personification of the schoolyard bully, and there's no real fulfillment to be had in running into him when you're strong and grown and seeing that he's a lonely ghost of a man who's still trying to be that thing he was so many years ago.

Adding to the sadness is having to watch Biggio play a position for which he has no aptitude. Perhaps when he was younger he could have made the transition to center - after all, he went from catcher to keystone and made himself one of the best - but he's no longer built for it, if he ever was.

Time and the ravages of 937 turned double plays have sapped his legs of their speed and quickness. Besides, there are better things for 37 year old ballplayers to do than learn the most difficult and physically demanding of outfield positions.

Offensively, he still has a little pop, but his batting average has suffered, as has his plate discipline. Biggio hasn't walked in 10% or more of his at bats since 2001, and the only thing keeping his OBP from being completely unacceptable is his ability to get hit by pitches. Take away his elbow shield, and you're looking at a .260/.320/.400 hitter in the leadoff spot. You'd think he was a Cub.

In left field, Lance Berkman is turning into something of an enigma himself.

He's lost batting average while losing power, yet he's increasing his walk rate while also bettering his strikeout to walk ratio. The trends in his strikeout and walk numbers should indicate making positive strides, but despite the indicators, the production left the building last year. Berkman's always had a sizeable platoon split, so maybe there's something to be found there.

Not exactly what I was looking for, but interesting nonetheless. His work against lefties has been fairly comparable, especially when the size of the sample is taken into account, but the drop in production against right handers is odd. It's still a very respectable line, but compared to the demolition job he's done on his opposites in the previous two years, the drop in power is troublesome.

Houston needs Berkman. Badly. I genuinely believe last season was a blip - he's only 28 and sometimes there's just no explaining an off year - but the fact that I can't find a root cause is strange. Or perhaps that should be a source of comfort. His approach at the plate is still solid, so it would seem more likely that he can bounce back. I don't have an answer, and that's the best part. We'll just have to wait for the season to find out.

There's another youngish player the Astros will be counting on at third base, and it's about time they did. Morgan Ensberg will finally be allowed to take over the hot corner full time after being forced to share innings last year with Geoff Blum.

Short of a serious injury - like, say, decapitation - there was no discernable reason to play Blum over Ensberg, yet it happened 72 times in 2003. That's 72 games where Blum's .262/.295/.379 line was deemed worthy to play over Ensberg's .291/.377/.530 line.

"Gee, Derek," some might say, "what about their platoon splits? After all, Ensberg hits from the right side, and Blum's a switch hitter. Maybe it was a good tradeoff after all!" Hmmmmm. Maybe so.

Or maybe not. Looking at these numbers, there was no justification for allowing Geoff Blum to do anything other than come off the bench or perform clubhouse foot massages. To put him in the lineup over Ensberg for nearly half of the Astro's games crosses the line from malpractice into madness.

Luckily for fans of the Houstons, the evil temptation has been removed to Tampa Bay, where all bad hitters go to die. A full year and 500+ at bats from Ensberg will help stave off some of the rest of the lineup's inevitable age related declines.

Like the one first baseman, Jeff Bagwell, finds himself in. While certainly not in freefall, Bagwell is slowly losing steam each year.

He's not losing production due to decreased playing time, he's just not as effective as he once was. Granted, he's still a fine player, but Bagwell will be 36 this year, and as this decline continues, the question is not whether he will become a millstone, but rather how large a millstone he'll be.

It's possible, if not likely, that he could continue to produce at last year's levels through 2006, and while that may be fine work when viewed in a vacuum, there are other considerations to make. Bagwell's salary for the next three years will be $12M, $13M, and $16M respectively. As I've mentioned before, no matter how it appeared at the time it was signed, this deal looks lousy now, especially when put into context of contracts like the one signed by Derrek Lee in February.

The Astros have been very loyal to Bagwell, after all, he's been the face of the franchise, along with Biggio, for years. But the time is coming, if not already here, when this loyalty will start to hamstring the club's future. Like it or not, this isn't a big budget team, and signing deals that pay players tens of millions into their late thirties is not a recipe for success, even in Big George's house.

Second baseman and designated truck washer, Jeff Kent, had a bit of an off year in 2003. Yet, when the player manning the keystone can say his .297/.351/.509 line wasn't up to previous standards, you learn to live with the problem.

That's not to say there aren't reasons for concern. Kent will turn 36 just after opening day, and while that's a source of worry all on its own, take a gander at this.

During his wonderful MVP season in 2000 he walked once every 7.7 plate appearances, but since then his walk rate has gone down every year, settling at near double the amount of PA's between walks in 2003. I don't want to make any rash predictions, but that doesn't look like a hitter who's likely to get better. In fact, I'd say it looks like someone who's about to hit a wall. Now, I'm no expert, and I don't play one on TV, but if I was an Astro fan I'd start to get worried.

Kent's double play partner is Adam Everett, and while he does well with the leather, he's got some learning to do with the stick. Last year he was barely above replacement level (.256/.320/.380, 4.7 VORP), and there's no reason to expect anything different in 2004. He'll be doing his level best to make sure the bottom of the Houston order is the opposing pitcher's refuge.

Joining him in the quest will be catcher, Brad Ausmus. I've already made my feelings known on Ausmus, so I won't belabor the point here. Suffice to say, when Ausmus signed his two year, $4M deal in the chill of November, it warmed my Cubfan heart all winter.

There's a decent offense here, but don't look for an overall improvement on last year's version. There are only one or two players in the lineup who are good bets for increased production, and the rest can be expected to experience some measure of decline. Much like the Cubs, what will separate Houston from the rest of the division will be their pitching staff. More on them, and the denizens of the pine, in part B.

I was laying about on Saturday afternoon, trying to avoid doing anything around the house or falling into the deadly trap laid every year by the fine folks at the NCAA, and I had the good fortune of running across an old baseball game on ESPN Classic. Not just any baseball game, mind you, but one of the all-time great games of Cub lore. June 23, 1984: the Ryne Sandberg two home run game.

I don't have any personal memories of the contest as I was thirteen at the time, living in Portland, OR, and fairly fresh in my Cubfandom. Of course, I've heard all sorts of stories about it second hand since I moved to Chicago, but, to my knowledge, I'd never had the distinct pleasure of witnessing the events.

I'll also add that I'm not much for information retention. In five years, if you ask me who was on the roster in 2003, I'll have a hard time recalling anything beyond major highlights. Thankfully, the likes of Lenny Harris and Troy O'Leary will fade from memory, but I'll also forget fun stuff like Todd Wellemeyer's first impressive outing in Milwaukee, or Doug Glanville's leadoff homer against Al Leiter in a late September game with huge playoff implications.

I hate that I'm that way, but it's a fact of my existence. Six months later, I already had to look up the Glanville homer to make sure it happened in September. Luckily, there are excellent resources at my disposal that keep me from making foolish factual errors in my writing (baseball-reference.com, baseballprospectus.com, retrosheet.org to name a few), and for a more visceral experience of days gone by, there's ESPN Classic.

One of the side effects of reliving such divine moments are the little, or sometimes not so little, things you notice. In all the hubbub surrounding Sandberg's amazing performance that day, other gems got lost. Had Ryno not come through with his second homer in the 11th, this game would still be a classic, but would likely be referred to as the Willie McGee Cycle game.

Quick! Tell me who had the game winning hit for the Cubs. Many of you may be steeped enough in the legend to know, but I hadn't a clue that Spike Owen had an older brother, let alone one who played in the Majors. Yet Dave Owen was the lucky soul who came up with the bases loaded and nobody out in the bottom of the 11th, and he responded with the game winning single to right, one of only 27 hits and 16 RBI he had his entire career.

Baseball fans revel in the small things. The forgotten key play - like Leon Durham's walk, steal of second, and advance to third on a throwing error that forced St. Louis to load the bases in the 11th. The unknown player who got the biggest hit of his life to win the game. The star whose brilliance on a particular day was overshadowed by another who shone just a little brighter.

It's these very things that I routinely forget, letting them fall out of my consciousness like a two week old grocery list. But not anymore. This year could be one where every little moment will be precious. So, despite my failings, my natural tendencies to lose the minutia in the fog of memory, I'm going to savor and remember all that I can.

This season could be a once in a lifetime experience, and I don't want to miss a moment of it. Not now, not thirty years from now.

Here's part two of the St. Louis preview, breaking down the starting rotation, bullpen and bench. Part one, covering the starting position players, can be found immediately below. Have a nice weekend, everyone!

Starting Pitchers

This group is certainly more talented than the motley crew assembled to buttress the dynamic duo of Morris and Williams in 2003, but the spectre of fragility will be haunting this assemblage all year. There's only one pitcher out of the five who's a good bet to throw 200 innings, and based strictly on talent, he's probably fourth on the depth chart. Hiring a monastery to say Mass for the arms of the starting staff might be a prudent investment in 2004.

There is no pitcher more essential to this team's fortunes than Matt Morris. With that in mind, let's take a look at some numbers from the last three years.

I don't have to draw a picture to tell you that doesn't look good. Of course, Morris was battling multiple injuries last season, which explains some of the dropoff. However, he was also quoted as saying he's noticed some velocity loss during his time in St. Louis, and that can't make the Cardinals' faithful feel secure. Morris needs to be healthy and throw 200 innings if this club wants to challenge for the division title, but he may need some monkish support to get it done.

Throwing out of the rotation's second spot, Woody Williams was two different pitchers in 2003. Before the All-Star Break he was A+ material, posting a 12-3 record with a 3.01 ERA over 134.2 innings. Then, like a smart kid who won't tell his teacher he can't see the blackboard anymore, his A's turned to D's as he posted a 6-6 record and 5.23 ERA over 86 innings.

One of the strange things about the second half for Williams was the fact that his strikeout rate actually went up. Normally, that's a good sign, but his hit rate, walk rate, and home run rate all went through the roof. Here's what it looked like in handy table form.

This isn't a trend from the previous two seasons, so either this is a fluke of small sample size, or it's a sign that Williams has aged to the point where 200 innings a year isn't realistic. I tend to buy the latter idea. Williams looked exhausted at the end of last season, and he's 37, so it's not unreasonable to expect a decline in stamina. But if he is succumbing to the ravages of age, it couldn't come at a worse time for the Cardinals. Add in a lingering shoulder injury that has kept him from pitching in a spring training game until yesterday, and you've got a good reason for Redbird fans to sweat.

As if the stalwarts of the rotation didn't provide enough uncertainty, there's another wildcard on the squad in the form of Chris Carpenter. Having missed over a season and a half with shoulder injuries that required two operations, he's come into camp this year looking like he's back to his old self again. If he can throw well for the Cards, it would be a huge boon to their title hopes.

The problem is, the Cardinals greatest need from their starters is innings, innings, and, more innings, and a man coming off dual shoulder surgeries and pitching regularly for the first time in over 18 months isn't likely to fill that need. In fact, the only year in which Carpenter started more than thirty games and threw over 200 innings was the year before he got hurt.

The Cards have done well to take him on as a project, and he could be a solid part of their rotation in the future. But counting on him throwing league average ball every fifth day for an entire season is stretching the boundaries of reality.

Jeff Suppan, on the other hand, has exactly what the doctor ordered. He'll never make anyone forget Bob Gibson, but he's done nothing but throw 200 innings a year of league average ball since 1999, and with the Cardinals ability to score runs, that's all they need to have a chance to win. Give this team five Jeff Suppans, and their bid to win the NL Central gets a bit more interesting.

Coming over from Atlanta as part of this offseason's J.D. Drew trade, Jason Marquis will round out the back of the rotation. He's never had more than 22 Major League starts in a season, and has never passed the 130 inning mark. He's also not had an ERA under five since 2001. However, he's still very young (only 25 this year), so potential remains. He'll need to reduce his walk and home run rates to really be of use, but even if he does, expect fatigue to set in when August rolls around.

Bullpen

As large an issue as the rotation was last year, the bullpen was that much worse. According to Baseball Prospectus' Support Neutral team rankings, the Cardinal starters were 21st in the Majors, which is bad, but not as bad as the relief corps who were ranked next to last. Reality check? Detroit was better. Luckily for St. Louis fans, the club has made some moves to address those issues. They won't be among the best pens in the league, but they'll no longer be one of the worst.

There's no doubt that Jason Isringhausen was missed during the first two months of the 2003 season, and when he returned, it was almost like he was never gone. Striking out a man an inning and putting up a paltry 2.36 ERA, Izzy dominated almost immediately and gave the Cardinals the elite reliever they needed so badly. Unfortunately, the team still employed the likes of Esteban Yan and Jeff Fassero, so some leads never got to him.

Steve Kline will be one of the men looking to get those games to Isringhausen, and while his strikeout rate has declined every year since his first good season with Montreal in 1998, he continues to post above average ERA's. This appears to be due to improving control and an ability to keep the ball in the park, but I imagine playing in front of the St. Louis defense the last few years hasn't hurt either. He will probably post another ERA within a quarter run of four, as well as once again being the owner of the Single Nastiest Hat Worn By Man.

Despite the disturbing qualities of The Hat, the St. Louis front office must have sensed they were in danger of assembling a pen low on nutbars. So to compensate, the Cardinals signed Julian Tavarez as their psycho du jour. He was actually pretty solid in relief for Pittsburgh last year, so while he might not win any congeniality awards, he should be a reasonably effective set up man.

One of the few effective relievers for the Cardinals in 2003 was Cal Eldred, who in his first year in St. Louis, seemed to find his niche. A starter all of his career, the Cardinals used him exclusively out of the bullpen, and he responded by striking out a batter an inning and posting a 3.74 ERA in 67.3 IP. He's been plagued by various injury problems throughout his career, but the move to a relief role may have helped. Anyone with his history is always a risk, but if last year is any indication, he should be able to keep it together and have another fine year.

As far as LOOGY's go, you could do a lot worse than Ray King. After a short, bad trial with the Cubs in 1999, King has managed to keep his ERA in the mid-3's or better, and over the last three years has murdered lefties, allowing only a .209/.269/.284 line. LaRussa loves his LOOGY's, so King should thrive in St Louis.

Continuing their recent trend of acting as the farm club for the rest of the division, the Pittsburgh Pirates nontendered Mike Lincoln in December, allowing St. Louis to sign him as a free agent two weeks later. Lincoln is a cheap, serviceable relief option with a bit of upside, and while he's got some other folks ahead of him on the depth chart, he provides good insurance in case someone like Eldred remembers that his shoulder is made of paper and staples.

That makes eleven pitchers, but it wouldn't be strange to see the Cardinals carry twelve this year, if only because the options available for bats are so sad. Likely candidates are Jason Simontacchi, Kiki Calero, Alan Benes, Jay Ryan, and Josh Pearce. The two best bets are Simontacchi and Calero, and which one comes along will probably be decided by one part spring performance and one part perceived need. If the club feels like they need a long option, Simontacchi's their man, and since that makes the most sense given the possibilities for injury among the starters, I'd slap the favorite label on him.

The Bench

Guh.

Ideally, I'd just leave it at that, but I'd feel like I hadn't done my job. Then guilt would set in, I'd have to call my therapist, and there'd be this whole thing with a teddy bear....trust me, it'd be ugly. Luckily, we've already covered some of this territory with the left field and second base situations, so I'll stick to the previously unmentioned "candidates."

There are few roster options who should be trusted to back up shortstop consistently, so Rule 5 pick Hector Luna is a decent bet to make the team. He's only 22 and looks like he has some potential, so he's not a bad guy to spend a roster spot on if you've got a rock solid regular at his position and a good rest of the bench. Well, at least they got the first part right. The other option is Wilson Delgado, and while I wouldn't say he's a good idea, he does have that salty veteran flavor Tony LaRussa loves.

There's a battle for the backup first base/corner outfield job between the two John's, Mabry and Gall. Mabry was never very good, and he seems to have outlived what little usefulness he had, fluky stint in Oakland be damned. Even without his competition's failings, Gall looks like he has the potential to be the only worthwhile option in an otherwise moribund reserve corps, showing an ability to make contact and hit for a bit of power in the minors. Plus, he's only 26, so rather than waste time with a player you know will be lousy, might as well give Gall his chance.

I'm beginning to form a theory. It's not completely fleshed out yet, but it goes something like this: All backup catchers are the same guy. Literally. Somewhere along the way, without the rest of the world finding out, a scientist on a remote island off the coast of Chile has discovered the secret to cloning humans. Turns out he lived in Milwaukee in 1957, but rather than becoming caught up in the exploits of future Hall Of Famers Eddie Mathews, Warren Spahn, or Hank Aaron as they went on to win the World Series, he was fascinated by their backup catcher, Carl Sawatski.

No one knows why our scientist friend was so enamored of this spare backstop, but he took it upon himself to clone Sawatski hundreds of times and send the spawn to America, where they could use their inherited talents to ride the pine for baseball teams across the land. And that, boys and girls, is where Chris Widger came from.

The Gist

This team has the core of talent to win the NL Central, even with the sucking chest wounds they'll carry at multiple positions. There isn't a team in the division without significant flaws, the Cardinals included, but in the areas where St. Louis is strong, they have huge advantages over their divisional rivals.

But the Cardinals' strength is also their weakness. So much of the team's production is concentrated in so few bodies, if one of them falters, the entire season falls with them. If those great players were all good injury risks that would be one thing, but there are several members of the group who have a decent chance to break.

The pockets of talent on this team are good enough that anyone who declares St. Louis to be a non-contender in the NL Central race is a fool. But those pockets have enough holes that anyone willing to wager cash on the Cardinals' chances is the fool's moron brother.

These have been getting awfully long, so in the interest of eye strain prevention, I've broken this week's installment into two parts. Today, we have the Cardinal position players, and tomorrow, the pitching staff and bench. Enjoy!

The St. Louis Cardinals haven't made the same splashy offseason moves that their main competitors in Houston and Chicago have, and many are using that fact as an excuse to write the team off in the NL Central race. This would be a mistake.

In 2003, the Cardinals allowed 796 runs, more than what 12 NL teams scored last year. They were the only team in the National League to allow more than 750 runs and still end up with a record of .500 or better.

It was the powerful offense that allowed this team to stay in contention as long as it did, and while some components were switched out for others this offseason, the core remains. The Cardinals will have four players who are almost certain to be the best in their league at their positions, a claim that not even the Yankees can make, and that alone makes them contenders.

However, despite their offensive capabilities, improving the club's capacity to prevent opposition run scoring was a priority, and while no big names came to town, moves were made to address issues in both the rotation and the bullpen. They've done enough to compete, but will it be enough to win?

Starting Lineup

Reggie Sanders is a funny bird (no pun intended). He's a solid hitter, fine defensive corner outfielder with a good arm, and from all reports, a nice guy. Yet he has this incredible trouble finding work every year. Up until this offseason, he had signed 3 consecutive one year deals for $1.5M, $1.75M, and $1M respectively, and at each of these stops his production has been right in the middle of his fellow right fielders in the league.

This makes him an excellent fit for a team like the Cardinals looking to fill multiple spots with minimal funds, and they took advantage of the situation, signing Sanders to a two year deal. However, there's still the question of why he has been unable to stick, and the answer is a troubling one for the Redbirds.

Never in his twelve full seasons in the Major Leagues has Reggie Sanders played more than 140 games. Over the last six years, he's averaged playing a little less than 128 games. For a team trying to work in some younger players, or with solid depth at the outfield corners, this wouldn't be an issue. St. Louis is not that team. Sanders' production will be welcome when he's in the lineup, but how often he'll be out there is an open question.

As for center field, I don't know what happened when Jim Edmonds came over to St. Louis, but if they bottle it, I'm buying. He was a fine player for Anaheim, but over the last four years, he has unquestionably been one of the biggest bargains in baseball, and something tells me the Angels would be willing to ship Adam Kennedy and Kent Bottenfield back across the Mississippi if Walt Jocketty was interested. [UPDATE: It's been pointed out that my geography here is sooooper bad! Let's just all adopt the stance that I originally wrote "across the Rockies (the mountains, not the team)" and agree never to speak of it again.] Here are his batting lines and salary from 2000-2003:

If you're a Cardinal fan looking for something disturbing, or a Cub or Astro fan looking for a ray of hope, note the gradual but steady drop in PA's from year to year. On an annual basis it's not alarming, but as a long term trend it's disquieting. Edmonds is well known for playing center field more like Dick Butkus than Willie Mays, and the myriad injuries big and small that come with that style appear to be taking their toll as time marches on.

His 2004 PECOTA card doesn't do anything to shake off that impression, either, predicting he'll come in with about 100 fewer PA's than last season. That's not good news for a team with little depth, who rely on their offense, and possess a payroll already at its upper limits. If any of the Cards' great stars go down for a substantial period of time, they don't have the personnel to adequately patch, and won't have the cash to bring in an appropriate replacement. In short, Edmonds et. al. need to stay healthy, or the Cardinals are screwed.

One area where St. Louis won't have to worry about a catastrophic injury is left field. While they have multiple A-list superstars in their lineup, the Cardinals will have several gaping holes as well, and no hole gapes larger than Albert Pujols' former stomping grounds. With Pujols' elbow-induced move to first base, the candidates for left are essentially competing for the opportunity to replace the .275 EQA of last year's first baseman, Tino Martinez. Here are the PECOTA projected EQA's of the current crop of candidates.

I'd say that's not good, but I don't want any trouble from the understatement police. This is going to be an issue all year long, as none of these gentlemen is a viable candidate to start on a regular basis, and some of them (I'm looking at you, Taguchi) don't even belong on a Major League roster. They are also all completely incapable of hitting a pitcher of like-handedness, so the Cardinals have to fill two roster spots with the likes of these guys just to fill an outfield corner every day.

The choice got a little easier recently, as Mark Quinn suffered another of the leg injuries that have haunted his career, but this "competition" still reminds me of the round of Fear Factor where everyone has to eat something appalling. Just because one of the nasty bits is gone from the plate doesn't mean you won't have to down something just as horrid when your turn comes.

Normally, I would say Robinson and Taguchi were shoo-ins simply because of their history with the club, but Brown has had a fine camp and may be playing himself into a platoon with Robinson. As Joe Sheehan said earlier this week, there's no good solution, and as far as I'm concerned, standing everyone in a circle and drawing straws will get you just as fine a fix as anything else.

Of course, there's no such issue over at first base. Once Barry Bonds retires or, God forbid, starts to show himself to be human, I can think of no wager more likely to net coin than a bet on the MVP future of Albert Pujols. This may sound hyperbolic, but I would be shocked to see him win any fewer than three of the awards over the life of his new seven year contract with the Cardinals, and wouldn't be surprised if he picked up a couple more. He is, quite simply, the most dangerous hitter in the National League not playing left field for the Giants, and is quickly approaching the time when there will be no need for even that small hedge. Franchises are built around players like Pujols, and the Cardinals have done well to make him their foundation for the future.

On the other infield corner we have yet another player who promises to be the best in the National League at his position, Scott Rolen. While there have been many reasons to advocate the canning of Larry Bowa in Philadelphia, the one I would use to justify the move would be Bowa's alienation of his - now former - third baseman.

What should you do if you have a 27 year-old at the hot corner who has done nothing but hit and play spectacular defense for the last six years? If you're Bowa, you piss him off to the point where he rejects a huge contract offer from his current team because he can't wait to escape your evil clutches. Sure, the Phillies have done fine for themselves in the meantime, and perhaps Rolen's departure meant having the cash to give to Jim Thome, but which would you rather have: the early decline years of an excellent first baseman, or the league's best third baseman through his peak? Me, I'll take Rolen every time.

Discussions of the best shortstops in the Majors have in recent years been confined to the American League and their vaunted Trinity or Quadrinity or whatever you want to call it. If 2003 didn't change that, it should have. Edgar Renteria was already the best shortstop in the National League, but last year he became the best shortstop in the Major Leagues not making $25M. Need some convincing? Here are some numbers from 2003. Roll your mouse over the stat title for a quickie definition, and click on the link for a more extensive version.

I threw Furcal in because he's reaching a point where, if he keeps up what he did last season, he deserves a seat at the table too. It's interesting to note that of the six most productive shortstops last year, only one appears to field his position at a rate above the league average, and he'll be at third base in 2004.

There's nothing in that table that doesn't scream out for Renteria to get some respect, and with A-Rod's position change, he is poised to take over the mantle of Best Shortstop in Baseball. Looking over the other contestants, that's no small feat.

The job of Renteria's double play partner is up for grabs, but it's more a battle for playing time than a roster spot, as both parties will wind up making the team. Bo Hart and Marlon Anderson are the competitors, and in case you haven't guessed, this qualifies as another of those gaping holes I spoke of earlier.

Neither player brings any special skill to the table, as both are incapable of getting on base, hitting for power, or playing above average defense. Their only defining characteristics are handedness (Hart = right, Anderson = left), and levels of grit and scrappiness. Hart is the clear winner on the second count, with the first being a tie as neither player seems to sport an appreciable platoon split. If TLR makes the smart play, most of the time will go to Anderson. However, don't underestimate the hypnotic power of a grimace and a dirty uniform in Tony LaRussa's decision making process.

Finally, we have Mike Matheny, he of the "good game calling" and "veteran leadership." I know it's not terribly fair to beat up on a team's catcher, after all, baseball isn't filthy with good offensive options behind the dish. But when your starting backstop is outhit over the course of the season, any season, by the likes of Bengie Molina, it's time to start considering other options. The Cardinals won't, though, and that's good news for the rest of the NL Central.

A little gossip and rumor-mongering to get your Monday morning started.

I Know Something You Don't Know

Buried in Matt Clement process pieces in both the Sun-Times and Tribune is this little gem from the articles' subject. He's speaking of Mark Prior, and I've used the Sun-Times' version below:

"The most important thing is that he's healthy," Clement said. "If he misses two starts [in April], he misses two starts. That's not the end of the world, as if he tried to rush and make that first start and then he misses the first month-and-a-half."

Looks like Mr. Clement slipped up a bit. I don't know about you, but that's the first time I've heard the implication that Prior could miss more than one start. It's certainly not cause for panic, but it does make me think that the team is trying to control this story very carefully to keep the natives from running around yelling something about the sky and how we should all seek shelter.

I could also be reading something into it, but for now, I'm going to stay inside with a pillow over my head.

That's Not What I Meant!

I've occasionally advocated trading Juan Cruz for something that would fill a need, but this freaked me out:

The Cubs denied a report in the South Florida Sun-Sentinel claiming they were discussing a trade with Florida in which pitcher Juan Cruz might be dealt for shortstop prospect Josh Wilson, a Marlins minor-leaguer.

If the team is looking to fill their need for a AA, no-hit, mediocre defensive shortstop, they certainly found their man in Josh Wilson. His 2003 line of .253/.294/.371 in 434 at bats for Your Carolina Mudcats! doesn't inspire me, and certainly doesn't make me think he's worth the team's most tradable commodity.

In his Baseball Prospect Book 2004, John Sickels basically calls Wilson a future utility man, as he's not a whiz with the glove, and he's yet to show any plate discipline, or even a consistently high batting average. The fact that this trade even makes the rumor mill gives me a sinking feeling about Cruz' perceived value. I don't know if that's a Cubs issue or a market issue, but neither sits well with me.

And They Say I'm a Geek

From the ever-so-useful AP Wire via Yahoo.

A man who's spent years applying layers of paint to a baseball that's grown to enormous proportions is hoping to have it declared the world's largest ball of paint.

For the past 27 years, Mike Carmichael has been painting a baseball that hangs in a shed behind his home. It now weighs 1,300 pounds, is more than 35 inches in diameter and has a 111-inch circumference due to more than 18,000 layers of paint.

In honor of Carmichael's work, Saturday was declared Ball of Paint Day in Alexandria, about 25 miles northeast of Indianapolis. It starting with a proclamation honoring Carmichael on the steps of City Hall, followed by a photo exhibit and ending with the core sample taken at Carmichael's home.

Who says there's nothing to do in Indiana?

I hope as many of you as possible got to watch yesterday's ballgame. It was spring, but it was still baseball, it was still a win, and it was still against the White Sox. A couple of observations:

• Carlos Zambrano wasn't terribly sharp, but he managed to get through 5 innings on about 73 pitches (that's my count, I haven't been able to find an official number). That puts him right around 100 over 7, and I'll take that most days. He pretty obviously didn't have his best stuff, as he struck out no one, walked two and gave up eight hits, getting the ball up a lot more than I'm comfortable with. Luckily, it was usually out of the zone, so it wasn't as damaging as it could have been. It was your basic gusty, mediocre outing, but if all the Sox good hitters were in the game (Ordonez, Thomas, Lee and Crede were sitting out), it could have been an ugly day.
  
  
• If Willie Harris continues to have games like yesterday, he won't get many starts at second for the Sox this year. In three at bats against Zambrano, on a day where anyone could see he was struggling a bit and having trouble throwing strikes, Harris saw all of four pitches, resulting in two grounders to second, and one foul pop out. You'd think he played for the Cubs.
  
  
• It was nice to see Sosa hit a long ball, but it was a total mistake pitch, about mid-thigh on the inner half of the zone. He should crush those every time, so I don't look at that as an indication of anything. If you want to see how Sammy's really doing, watch what he does with pitches on the outside. If he tries to pull them, he's in trouble. But if he sends them the other way, he could be a lot more fun to watch this year.
  
  
• Patterson continues to look solid. His first at bat was only one pitch long, but the next two were signs of progress, one ending in a strikeout, and the other an RBI single. The strikeout was probably the best of the day, seeing Corey get down 1-2, but hold off on two breaking balls I fully expected him to swing at, making the count full. Of course, he swung at the same pitch he had just spit on earlier for strike three, but not swinging at a tasty looking breaking ball on a 1-2 count was huge progress for him.
  
  
• Finally, the most encouraging part of the day was seeing LaTroy Hawkins go two innings late in a tie ballgame. I know it's Spring Training, but if this is any indication of how Dusty intends to use him, Cub opponents had better score early and often in 2004.

Since moving to the National League in 1998, the Milwaukee Brewers have never won more than 74 times in a season. The last two years have seen them finish last in a relatively weak NL Central, winning 56 and 68 games respectively. Sure, last season was an improvement from the previous year's pathetic output - the worst winning percentage in franchise history; worse even than the singular and inaugural season in Seattle when the team went 64-98, 8 games better than their sad 2002 counterparts - but can anyone legitimately say that this team is on its way back to respectability, let alone the glory days of Harvey's Wallbangers?

Gone is the team's one legitimate superstar, Richie Sexson. The $8M he is owed this year was viewed as a luxury on a club that intended to cut its already tiny payroll by 25%, and since the prospects for resigning him after 2004 were dim at best, he was sent to the Diamondbacks in exchange for six players, four of whom will be starters in this season's Brewers infield.

The natives are restless and crying for blood, but while things may look dark at first glance, there are reasons to believe the dawn is coming to Milwaukee. Let's see if we can find the signs.

Starting Lineup

"I know not what fell spirit o'ertook Melvin,
Yet, he didst sign Geoff Jenkins to a deal
Long in years for considerable coin."

-William Shakespeare

"Geez, that's a buncha moolah fer a guy what hurts himself all the time."

-Bernie Brewer

Jenkins is an excellent source of left-handed power who does well getting on base, plays fine defense in left field, and has a blistering cannon for an arm. He will be 29 this year, and appears to be solidly at his peak. Under normal circumstances, his three-year, $23M contract would be a steal, but these are not normal circumstances.

Jenkins gets hurt. A lot. It seems to be less an issue of fragility, and more a symptom of his full-throttle style of play. This is a wonderful quality to have; it's fun to watch for the fans and inspirational to fellow teammates, but minus an exoskeleton and magical powers of recuperation, it has its dangers, which Jenkins succumbs to regularly.

I see two potential lines of reasoning for this deal:

1) The Brewers had a lousy public relations winter. From the slashing of payroll, to the trading of Sexson, to the firing of Ulice Payne, the good people of Milwaukee have become fed up with the financial antics of their team. If the Brewers had let questions about Jenkins status linger, they may have lost even more gate revenue than they already have, as the baseball fans of Wisconsin lost any remaining faith that their club was trying to win. Signing Jenkins is a Declaration Of Intent To Compete.

2) Signed beyond 2004 or not, Jenkins will be trade bait in July, and having him inked to a contract through his peak years could increase his value in trade, assuming the acquiring team is interested in a long-term outfield solution. No one negotiating with Doug Melvin will be able to low-ball him for fear of losing Jenkins to free-agency. He comes with cost-certainty through 2007, and that will allow the Brewers to get the swag they need to help build the younger, better ballclub they're working toward.

I don't know that this was what the Brewers were thinking, but they are they only reasons, on their own or in tandem, that make sense to me. The other option is the hope and prayer that Jenkins stays healthy, and that just smells too much like a Jeffrey Hammonds redux to stomach.

Despite what I may think of the Jenkins contract, the Brewers started to show a keen eye for freely available talent last year, and no player personifies that trend more than Scott Podsednik.

A minor league journeyman, Podsednik won a job as a backup outfielder, and after the team finally got shut of Alex Sanchez, was given a shot at starting in center field. He made the most of his opportunity, hitting .314/.379/.443 while stealing 43 bases at a success rate of 81%. His center field defense is good enough, and since he's 28, isn't blocking anybody, and makes the league minimum, anything close to this level of production will make him a huge bargain in 2004.

Continuing the scrap heap picking, Ben Grieve moves to Milwaukee this year and should be manning right field for the Crew. His first few years in Oakland were very productive, and he was the model of Variation I of what has come to be labeled as the "Moneyball" philosophy, but is more aptly described as the art of exploiting inefficient markets. He didn't hit for a high average, struck out a lot, and played defense like Frankenstein's Monster with shinsplints, but he got on base, and when he put bat to ball he hit it very, very hard.

Then in the prelude to the 2001 season, Grieve got traded to the Devil Rays, and with each successive year he has become more passive, more expensive, and much less valuable. He's now gone from being paid $5.5M in 2003, to a non-guaranteed deal for $700K that allows the Brewers to cut him before the opener and owe him only one-sixth of his promised salary. It's a nice gamble for Milwaukee. Even if he comes north and repeats his performance in Tropicanaland, the low cost makes the risk worth the possible rewards. Grieve will only be 28 this year, and with the potential he's shown early, a return to form could be a boon for Brewtown for several years.

Acquired in a trade last offseason with the Braves in exchange for Ray King, Wes Helms came in and filled the gap at third base admirably and cheaply in 2003. His .261/.330/.450 line from last year was easily a career best, and since he turns 28 in May, it's probably as good as he gets. There's no reason to expect a huge dropoff, though. He's always had power, so if he can continue to walk once every ten at bats or so and hit around .260, he'll continue to be an asset. He's not blocking anyone, either, so the Brewers buyout of his last two arbitration years this winter made sense.

The Diamondbacks got their first extended look at Lyle Overbay last season, and they thought so much of him that they traded for Richie Sexson. He's a solid player, though, just not the type of offensive package one normally likes from a first baseman. Think of Mark Grace, except without all that pesky power. He should hit for a decent average, solid OBP, and a slugging percentage in the low .400's. He'll do for this year, and maybe one more as he keeps the position warm for Prince Fielder.

The imported placeholder parade continues as Junior Spivey comes over from the desert to hold down the keystone for Rickie Weeks. Spivey broke out for Arizona in 2002 with a very impressive .301/.389/.476 line, showing nice power and strike zone judgment. However, a slow start in 2003 and a torn ligament in his left ankle in June paved the way for the "emergence" of Matt Kata and made Spivey expendable. Junior won't duplicate his 2002, but he plays a good defensive second base, and even if he doesn't return to his previous heights, he should still outplay the likes of Eric Young, and at nearly the same cost.

As the Stopgap Express pulls into the final station we find the Human Corkscrew, Craig Counsel, waiting for us on the platform. Part of the fun in being a rabid baseball fan is that you can identify a lot of players just by looking at their batting stance. They could have their back turned to you, or they could be silhouetted against the sun, but you can still tell who it is from the placement of their hands, the bend in their knees, the shape of their back. Counsel's stance could be identified by blindfolded sherpas who had recently ingested a metric ton of peyote.

He's been a solid shortstop in his relatively short exposure at the position, and there are worse hitters in the world. Getting on base is pretty much his only offensive skill, as evidenced by his career .266/.349/.351 batting line. While a versatile bench player, he's never really been starter quality. Luckily, that may not be required of him for long. J.J. Hardy will be the worst hitter of the Brewers' young infield trinity, but he's the oldest of the three and has spent the most time above A-ball, so there's a reasonable chance that he'll be the first to reach Wisconsin. If he plays well in AAA, he could join the club before September.

Catcher wasn't the weakest position for the 2003 Brewers, but it was awfully close. Chad Moeller will be a welcome change at backstop, even if he isn't the second coming of a circa 1999 Dave Nilsson. Moeller is patient enough and has decent power, but he leaves something to be desired behind the plate. Then again, so did Eddie Perez, and he couldn't hit either, so at least the Brewers have fixed part of the problem. One thing at a time, boys, one thing at a time.

Starting Pitchers

This is where the Brewers are in trouble for both the present and future, and it is precisely this situation that makes a potential Jenkins-for-prospects trade a near necessity. As you will see below, something has to be done about getting some young, talented arms into the system, or all the great infield prospects in the world can't help them win. Just ask the Rangers.

Ben Sheets is a decent pitcher, but that's the best you can say about him. His strikeouts are decent, his walks are decent, his hit rates are decent, and he throws a lot of innings. On a good club, he would be a nice pitcher to have in the fourth spot. On the Brewers, he's the ace, and the only starter with a guaranteed rotation slot.

Despite the lack of pre-season assurances, it's fairly safe to pencil in Davis, Franklin, and Kinney into three of the remaining four slots. Their order of deployment is irrelevant, as they are all likely to sport ERA's north of five, with Kinney being the only one of the group with a chance to post a strikeout rate much over five per nine.

Wes Obermueller is the most likely candidate for the final rotation spot, but that has more to do with familiarity than with any special talent he brings. Chris Capuano, one of the flock to come north in the Diamondback deal, is a legitimate contender for the job. He certainly has more upside than Obermueller, being two years younger and sporting snazzier peripherals in the minors and majors. If he looks ready to go, they'd be foolish not to give him the gig.

Adrian Hernandez is 28, and has only had "success" recently as a swingman in the Yankee's system at Columbus. His time as a regular starter has never been positive. Travis Phelps hasn't started regularly since 2000, and Ben Ford is a journeyman reliever/swingman who hasn't seen the majors in three years. None of these gentlemen has much chance of earning a slot, and if they do, something has gone badly, indeed.

Bullpen

This isn't a bad looking group. Everyone appears to be near league average, with a couple of guys who should do better. In fact, they should be considerably better as a group than the starters. That may be more of an indictment of the rotation's quality than an endorsement of the bullpen's talent, but there are some gentlemen here who could be the beginning of a solid relief corps for the next couple years.

Danny Kolb saw a sliver of light peeking through the entryway and he kicked the door down with both feet. When Mike DeJean was struggling as the closer, Kolb was given an opportunity to do the job, and do it he did. His numbers for the year were excellent, posting a 1.96 ERA over 41.1 IP, giving up 34 H, 2 HR, and 19 BB to go with 39 SO. It's a great story, as Kolb came into 2003 with only 77.2 Major League innings under his belt as a 28 year-old journeyman, and like Joe Borowski sans the side trip to Mexico, he was given a chance to shine and took full advantage. I, for one, will be rooting for him 145 times this year.

The primary set up man should be Mike Crudale, but that's assuming he's made a full recovery from the control yips he had throughout last season. Strangely, he managed to keep his ERA down to 2.61 between St. Louis and Milwaukee in 2003, and that's primarily because he only gave up one homer with a .167 batting average against. He needs to cut the walks down severely (18 in 20.2 IP last year), because he just can't keep being that lucky.

If Crudale can't get it done, the next best option is Luis Vizcaino, who after having an excellent 2002, suddenly started getting smacked around last season. The question is which year was the outlier, 2002 or 2003? The answer is probably "both." Vizcaino should be able to settle in as a league average pitcher whose nice K-rate and lousy HR-rate cancel each other out. He'll bounce back from his 2003, but he'll never again see the heights of 2002.

In the role of long man/spot starter we have the venerable Dave Burba. Morphing into a pen pal seems to have given his career new life. He's 37 now, so knowing he only has to throw an inning or two at a time may be allowing him to get a little velocity back. No need to pace yourself when you won't be in the game 40 pitches later. The numbers bear it out, too, as he had an ERA at 5.59 in his two spot starts, and 2.94 in relief.

Ah, now my favorite, Brooks Kieschnick. Is there anyone who doesn't think this two-way player thing is cool? It's the perfect deal for a guy like Brooks. He's not a great pitcher, and when given regular exposure, he's not a great hitter, either. But let him do both, and suddenly he's worth something. It's a great example of the whole being worth more than the sum of its parts, and I hope his success inspires other teams to find players to use in similar roles. There's no reason to waste a decent pitcher on the last bullpen spot, so why not find someone with a strong arm and no position who can knock the cover off the ball and teach him to throw a curve?

The only lefty worth taking north, Matt Ford doesn't get lefties out. Or at least he didn't in the 46 at bats he had against them last year. I don't have minor league splits for him, so I don't know if this is a career trend or just a small sample size blip. The one thing that is apparent is that he was much more comfortable coming out of the pen than he was starting. Again, it's small sample sizes, but in 14.1 IP as a starter he posted an 8.79 ERA, while his 29.1 IP in relief saw him put up a 2.15 ERA.

Ford came to the Brewers as a Rule 5 pick last year, and his exposure to the Majors in 2003 was his first work above A-ball. With an overall ERA of 4.33, I'd say he fared well. There's a lot more to learn about him, but if he can build on last year's experience, he has a chance to be an asset out of the pen.

Barring a decision to take twelve pitchers to Wisconsin, Leo Estrella will probably be the man pushed out of a job by the ongoing Kieschnick experiment. It's no great loss. His ERA was about league average, but his peripherals (66 IP, 75 H, 10 HR, 21 BB, 25 S0) don't inspire much confidence. He'll probably be the first right hander called up from AAA when a replacement is needed.

Unless they're desperate for a second lefty, Chris Michalak won't make the team. He spent all of last season in AAA for two different teams, and was unimpressive at both stops. The Brewers might try to stash him in Indianapolis in case someone breaks.

Jeff Bennett gets mention as a possible back of the bullpen man, but it looks like there are already too many right-handers around, and Bennett's lack of success in his 23.1 innings in AAA last year make him a longshot.

The Bench

I like Keith Ginter. He's got patience and a bit of pop, and he can hold his own at multiple infield positions. As a reward, he received a three year deal for $1.925M just over a week ago. I don't know how necessary it is to lock up your super-sub for multiple years, but if he winds up starting a lot of games at second for some reason over the next season or two, he's good enough to get more money in arbitration. Normally, I'd say he's fungible, but there just aren't that many middle infield bench types who can post a .350 OBP. I say good for him, and good for Milwaukee.

Still young and still cheap, that's what I have to say about Bill Hall. You want more? Okay, it looks like he fields at about Ginter's level. More still? Fine. He's got some power, too. What, again? Alright, you asked for it. Bill Hall has yet to show any indication that he is capable of posting an acceptable on base percentage. He is completely and totally hacktastic, and any positives that his power might bring to the table are totally destroyed by the spectacular number of outs he creates. But he's still young and still cheap.

A solid sub on the outfield corners, Brady Clark could wind up starting if Ben Grieve can't shake his Tropicanafunk. That wouldn't be good, because Clark doesn't have much in the way of power. Hopefully, it won't come to that, and he can spot start and pinch hit like he's meant to do.

He's not Keith Osik, and that's good, but he's still Gary Bennett. On the either/or query posed of all backup catchers - "catch and throw" or "grip and rip" - the answer Bennett provides is "could you please rephrase the question?" I honestly have trouble finding a discernable skillset for him, so if anyone out there has insider info, please enlighten me.

The last two spots on the roster will be filled by some combination of Matt Erickson, Trent Durrington, Chris Magruder, and Jon Nunnally. None are likely to inspire rapture or suddenly become franchise cornerstones, but all have shown at least occasional discipline, and most have decent contact skills. I suppose, of all of them, I'd love to see Nunnally make the team. He's the oldest, having turned 32 in November, and he's the only one of the four who represents a power threat. He won't hit for much of an average, but when he does make contact, it'll be fun to watch it fly.

The Gist

For the first time in recent memory, the Brewers are moving in the right direction. It's a little early to start making room in the rafters for those division title flags, but they are finally in a position to inspire some of that "hope and faith" the Used Car Salesman was hocking. This season is more about waiting for the future than playing for the present, and while that may seem like a continuation of a long running theme, this time there's an end to the wait in sight.

If you didn't check out the Cubs Blog Army Roundtable over at the Cub Reporter, do yourself a favor and take a peek. But here, in the ultimate act of hubris, is the complete text of my answers to the questions posed. Naturally, they were edited the first time around (I am about to post a 3,300 word essay on the freakin' Brewers tomorrow, after all), so enjoy them in all their original, verbose glory!

Q: Most pundits agree that the Cubs have one of the best rotations in baseball. Will the rotation live up to the hype? If so, which pitcher will have the best year? If not, who will falter, and will the team be able to overcome it?

First, I have to say that I think the hype is unrealistic under the best of circumstances. Not living up to it wouldn’t be a sign of the staff underperforming, rather it would merely prove they weren’t space aliens or deities or the inventors of Krispy Kreme.

Mark Prior will have the best year, but we’ll see Kerry Wood finally get enough wins for people to stop with the overrated tag. If anybody falters, it will be Zambrano. He was so gassed at the end of last year. I know Will Carroll said he didn’t hurt himself, but I’ll feel a lot better when he’s got 10 or so starts under his belt at his established level. I still think he’ll regress a bit, but as long as he’s keeping the ball in the park, I won’t be concerned.

If any single pitcher not named Wood or Prior goes down for the year, it can be absorbed, and one of those two could be gone for a stretch similar to Prior’s DL stint last year without causing a collapse. Anything beyond that would be catastrophic.

Q: Which, if any, of the Cubs pitching prospects will make an impact on the team this year?

It depends on injuries. If all the starting staff stays healthy, or only misses outings one or two at a time, I don’t think you’ll see anyone making an impact, or even getting many innings. I think they’re going to be very cautious with Guzman, and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t spend the entire year in Iowa. If he doesn’t, then something very bad happened on the big club.

I suppose Beltran could make an appearance in the pen, but again, that would take someone getting hurt. Maybe he’ll break camp in Remlinger’s spot and head back down when Greybeard is all the way healthy.

Q: What should be done with Juan Cruz?

Eventually, he should be traded, but now’s not the time. He’s a big chit, so you’re better off holding on to him until mid-year when you can better evaluate and prioritize your needs. So, the question becomes where do you stash him in the meantime to keep his value as high as possible?

This is a reversal from what I’ve previously said, but I’m thinking he should stay in Iowa until he’s dealt. Rotting at the back of Dusty’s bullpen won’t do him any good, and he might just implode when he’s asked to pitch after ten days off (again). He owned AAA when he went down there last year, so why not let him keep building his stamina and showing off his arm. Plus, if the unthinkable happens, and he’s needed to start, he’ll have been doing it for a while and will be comfortable.

Q: How much better is the Cubs bullpen this season than it was in 2003?

A lot, but I’m not sure it matters as much as it could. Sure, the innings thrown by the pen will be of higher quality, and that’s certainly positive, but what the Cubs really need is MORE innings out of the pen, and I don’t think they’ll get that. I took a look at this a little bit ago, and near as I could tell, Dusty tends to base his bullpen usage almost entirely on the quality of his starters. One would think it would be symbiotic, and that’s what I hoped to find, but it looks more like a case where, if Dusty has the horses, he lets ‘em run ‘till they drop.

Q: While there are very few questions about the pitching, there are plenty of questions about the offense. Will the Cubs score enough runs to hold off the Astros in the NL Central?

The Cubs’ offense is better this year. Not by a lot, but it’s better. I’d expect the team to score around 750 runs, which isn’t great, but with the likely decrease in the team’s runs allowed, it should be enough for them to be there at the end.

Another factor is the Astros’ offense. The bad news is, Morgan Ensberg is getting the Astros’ full time third base job. The good news is, Jason Lane isn’t getting any of the center field job. As long as Craig Biggio keeps up the Scrappy Doo imitation, he’s got the organization wrapped around his finger, which should keep a smile on the face of all Cub fans. If the Astros can find a taker for Hidalgo, then Lane will get his shot, but it’ll be in the wrong spot and will result in a net loss in production. Add in Bagwell’s age, the fascination with Brad Ausmus, and the likelihood that, without a trade for Hidalgo, they’ll be unable or unwilling to take on much payroll at the deadline, and I think the Cubs match up well.

Q: Who will have a better 2004, Michael Barrett or Damian Miller?

I like Barrett overall. Miller is a better defender, but I think he’ll continue to decline offensively, and that’s where Barrett can make up the difference. I imagine they’ll be very close in total value, but I think Barrett takes it.

Q: The Hee Seop Choi for Derrek Lee trade was a classic example of trading potential for current performance. Do you think it was the right trade to make for this year? What about for the future of the team?

There’s no question it was the right deal for this year. Don’t get me wrong, I love Choi, and there’s still a part of me that wishes I could get the chance to see him grow up and reach his potential with the Cubs. However, there’s no doubt in my mind that Lee will be the better player this year, and probably in 2005. This is a team in a position to go on an extended run of success, and when the opportunity arose to make a much needed near term improvement offensively and defensively, Jim Hendry did what should be done and grabbed it with both hands.

The future? Well, the main argument for keeping a player like Choi around is that he provides superior production for minimal financial investment. While this concept is an important one for any team to grasp, it’s less important for a team with greater resources, like the Cubs. This deal wasn’t made in a vacuum, and while the Marlins will be getting good, inexpensive production from Choi for the next four or five years, when Lee’s contract runs out at the end of the 2006 season, the Cubs will almost certainly be in a position to acquire another near-peak first baseman at market rates, assuming they don’t have a youngster ready to take over. As an academic question, the answer might be different, but looking at the Cubs specific situation, this was the deal to make now and for the years to come.

Q: What sort of seasons do you expect Moises Alou and Corey Patterson To have? If one or the other struggles, will Dusty pull them from the lineup, or stick with them?

Is ‘short’ a good answer? Seriously, I expect Patterson to be able to get it going after a month or so. His first step might not come all the way back for a bit, but as fast as he is, his offensive game has never been predicated on his speed, so I don’t see that being a huge problem. My one worry would be on defense. If he can’t get to balls as easily, will he try a Griffey-esque leap to reach his goal? I shudder to think.

Alou is another matter. He’s little more than a singles hitter anymore, and the power decline should continue. That won’t be too much of a problem, though, because I’ll be shocked if he plays more than 100 games this year. I think he will do enough damage to himself before the All-Star break that the Cubs will have to trade for an outfielder around the deadline. This is part of why I’d hang on to Cruz until July.

Q: Who will get more playing time at second base, Mark Grudzielanek or Todd Walker? Who *should* get more playing time?

I think Grudz will get the innings. Dusty just loves him to death, and I think this is one of those times when the ‘ol Baker Loyalty Wagon and Traveling Show will come rolling into town.

Who should be in there? It depends. If Grudz’ defense regresses at all, Walker should be in there against all righties. Otherwise, I wouldn’t mind seeing a platoon of these two based on who’s pitching – for them and for us. If a lefty is throwing for the opponent, Grudz should be in there no matter what. Walker’s a lousy defender, and he can’t hit port-siders, so there’s no excuse for playing him. However, if there’s a right-hander up for the opponent and Wood or Prior is throwing, I’d use Walker. Lots of K’s from those guys, and the fewest ground balls on the staff. If Maddux, Clement, or Zambrano is on the hill, I use Grudz no matter what, because those guys throw too many dirt balls to let Walker get a taste of the infield.

Q: Jim Hendry was very active this winter. Everyone expects the Lee and Maddux acquisitions to help the team immensely. Was there another, lesser transaction the Cubs made this winter that you think will have a significant impact on the team?

Jose Macias. Definitely, Jose Macias.

[pause for removal of mind controlling parasite from inner ear]

Ah, that’s better. Now what was the question? Oh yeah. Jose Mac….I mean, LaTroy Hawkins. I knew, as we all did, that the Cubs would need to pick up another reliever or two to hopefully take some pressure off the starting staff. I don’t know that his acquisition will mean more reasonable pitch counts for Wood, Prior, and Zambrano, but he will certainly make a difference in critical late game situations. I think it’s fair to say that the Cubs didn’t have a dominant reliever last year. They had Kyle Farnsworth, who could be dominating, but no one had that kind of mastery on a consistent basis. Hawkins brings that quality, and with Joe Borowski in the capital “C” Closer role, there’s the added bonus of having the best man out of the bullpen not being constrained to the ninth inning. It will turn out to be a big advantage, even if this “proper” usage pattern is somewhat accidental.

Q: Recently, GM Jim Hendry locked up Greg Maddux, Kerry Wood and Derrek Lee for the next few years. Who on the current roster, if anyone, should get the next long-term contract?

Aramis Ramirez is the only player who should be in the discussion, and that’s only if he solidifies his gains this season. He fell off the table after his excellent 2001, and he made it part of the way back last year, but I want to see what the Pirates saw when Aramis was 23 before I lock him up long term. Everyone else is either too young or too old.

Q: As a Cubs fan, are you having a hard time dealing with the fact that the Cubs go into this season as favorites?

Of course, it’s strange. I’m just not used to the idea of reasonable people being able to say with a straight face that the Cubs could win the World Series. That said, coming so close last year made me want it that much more. The oddity of being good is nothing compared to the misery of being bad, and after coming so near the goal, the disappointment of NOT being favorites would be unspeakable.

Q: What are you looking forward to about the 2004 Cubs? What are you dreading about them?

I look forward to seeing what this pitching staff is capable of, and I dread injuries. Yes, we lost Corey last year. Yes, Sammy was out for a while. Yes, Prior made like a pinwheel. Yet, the only major boo-boo belonged to Corey, and my fear for this year is a catastrophic meltdown involving two-thirds of the outfield and two-fifths of the starting staff. If we were talking about random possibilities, I’d be fine, but it doesn’t take a big imagination to see just that scenario occurring. Good teams can deal with the loss of one good player, no team can lose them en masse and hope to compete.

I just used eight times the words to describe my dread as I used to describe what I look forward to. I must be a Cub fan.

Trolling through the rags this morning, I noticed this quote from Todd Walker in a Chicago Tribune piece:

"I'm hoping to stick with this team for a long time," Walker said. "If after this year [Moises] Alou is not back, maybe I'll have an opportunity to play left. If [Mark] Grudzielanek is not back, I'll have an opportunity to play second. For me, personally, it's a good deal. It gives me more options, and it gives them more options. As long as I hit, I'll be all right."

It seems that Todd got his first chance to play the outfield yesterday, spending five innings in left and getting nary an opportunity to use his glove. The quote just illustrates how anxious Walker is to play for a winning team, this team specifically, and his willingness to do what it takes to make himself a valuable commodity.

I must say, I like the chutzpah. This is the type of player I think all fans want to have on their club. He just wants to get out there and play; play hard, and win. There's nothing wrong with that, and as he says, all he has to do is hit. But does he hit enough to justify getting extensive time in left?

Walker's 2004 PECOTA projection midpoint puts him at about 14.6 VORP. Here's the list of left fielders who beat out that number in 2003.

That doesn't look promising. Add in the fact that Mora, Giles, and Floyd all had fewer than 500 plate appearances, and the concept of "Todd Walker, Left Fielder" starts to look problematic.

Walker has a chance to be a great asset for the Cubs this year. He brings a left-handed bat with a bit of pop, and a fantastic willingness to try anything to help the team. Giving him the opportunity to be an Uber-Sub is a fine idea. Spotting him at various positions, particularly against right-handed pitchers, will give the regulars a chance to rest as well as using Walker's platoon split to advantage. Walker is hoping to stick with the Cubs for a long time, and if he's willing to continue in this vein in 2005, I'd love to have him on board. But he's no left fielder.

UPDATE: I realized after looking a little closer that VORP is adjusted for position, and so my comparison is a bit of apples and oranges. That's the good news. The bad news is the baseline for left fielders is considerably higher than the baseline for second basemen. Those players in the table above still outperformed Walker by a hefty margin, but instead of them being the only ones, there are even more.

According to PECOTA, Todd Walker projects to have an Equivalent Average of .257 in 2004. Among the 31 left fielders with 400 or more plate appearances in 2003, only 5 had a lower EQA. I may have gotten the details wrong in the work above, but the result is the same. Todd Walker shouldn't be a regular in left.

Check out the first two parts of the Cubs Blog Army Roundtable, running over at the Generalissimo's home base, The Cub Reporter. Part 1 can be found here, and part 2 here.

The third and fourth parts run tomorrow and Thursday, with the same questions being asked of a different cast of characters, including yours truly. I had a blast doing this, as I'm sure everyone else did, and I hope all who read it have a similar level of enjoyment. Many thanks to Christian Ruzich for spearheading this effort, and hopefully he'll feel inclined to do the same thing next year!

I'm sure you're all aware by now that Mike Remlinger will be starting 2004 on the disabled list. In the long term, this is a good thing. He spent the entire season in pain last year, and while he performed admirably considering, I'm not interested in having anyone on the pitching staff "gutting through" an injury, particularly in the early going. The Cubs will need all hands on deck and healthy if they want to make the postseason, and will need them more upon arrival.

This development has all but guaranteed a spot for Juan Cruz in the bullpen, at least to start the season. It would take something catastrophic involving an asteroid, Bruce Willis, and the accidental mislabeling of laundry soap as weapons-grade plutonium to keep him out of the Cubs' bullpen in April. Who accompanies him is another matter, and while I'm not going to go through every reasonable possibility (Alex Ciepley's already done nicely with that), I do have someone I want to actively stump against.

I know I'm comparing apples and oranges in the sample sizes, but that will be part of my point. Yet, before I make my intentions clear, let's talk about the guy with all the playing time.

It's pretty easy to see how awful Player A is. He doesn't strike people out, has lousy control, and gives up a ton of hits. The one "positive" is that he tends to give up "only" 20.7 home runs per 200 innings, but spinning that is like saying how nicely Martha Stewart's hair held up in the wind after she became a convicted felon. His career ERA+ is still 81, and if 559 innings of that brand of "run prevention" doesn't convince you to leave him be, there may be a job for you in Cincinnati.

Gotcha, Derek. Player A would be a bad addition to a team. What about Player B? Well, right now, we don't know much. Four innings, no matter how good or bad, tell us next to nothing. If we understand the quality of the competition our ideas about this pitcher become more clear, but only by a fraction. It's still just four innings, and anyone with enough talent to be a professional baseball player at any level of a Major League system can have four good innings in the Show.

It's impossible to come to a conclusion about Player B's potential. There's just not enough information, and even adding another 10-15 innings of data won't do much to increase our enlightenment. Until we know more, Player B is something of an enigma, and there's no way we could make a reasonable decision about how to use him with that little information in hand.

Luckily, we don't have to. And neither do the Cubs. Player B is Jimmy Anderson, a soft-tossing lefty currently having a decent camp in Mesa, and battling for the last spot in the bullpen. Player A is also Jimmy Anderson, except instead of spring training numbers against other team's AA players, those are Anderson's career stats in the Major Leagues.

What should we believe: the 4 innings of work in Mesa, or the 559 innings played against the big boys? The answer is obvious to me, and should be to the Cubs as well. Unless he's suddenly added velocity on his fastball and snap on his breaking stuff, Anderson is going to be the same pitcher he's always been: Shawn Estes minus the curveball, plus the Krispy Kreme.

The only reasons to let Anderson move north with the big club are because he's performed well over a short stint against inferior competition, and he happens to throw with his left hand. If either of these justifications seem solid, you're welcome to your opinion. I just hope you don't work for the Cubs.

Blackbeard, Bluebeard, even Captain Morgan was hanging his head in shame. Pirates pillage, pilfer, and plunder. It's part of the job. But these Pirates of Pittsburg were being robbed blind. By Cubs. Arrrg!

In July of 2003, the Cubs called "parley," and the Pirates honored the request, allowing the team to board and neglecting to lock everything down. By the time they left, the Cubs had a starting third baseman, a leadoff man, and a platoon-mate for Eric Karros, leaving only a mediocre second-base prospect and a pony-keg as compensation.

For a team as cash-strapped as the Pirates, getting next to nothing for your cast-off veterans is a tremendous sin. Bad teams sign middling oldsters to pass them off for good swag in July, but the Bucs blew their shot at building their future. Where will their 2003 transgressions leave them in 2004?

Starting Lineup

Last season the Pirates scored 753 runs. Missing Brian Giles, Reggie Sanders, Aramis Ramirez and Matt Stairs makes a repeat performance extremely unlikely. Who's coming back and who's filling in the gaps?

Pittsburgh will be paying $1.75M for the privilege of letting Raul Mondesi patrol right field. I've covered a good deal of this in a previous post, but I'll state once again, there is nothing about this signing that is not a waste of resources. For some teams, $1.75M is chump change, but this organization isn't one of them. When there are cheaper, better options available in house, yet "name" mediocrities continue to be courted for their yummy bag of veteran pixie dust, the organization needs to take a long hard look at how they're doing business. There's more on this situation in "The Bench" section.

If the rest of the Pirates offseason is any indication, Chris Singleton will walk out of camp with the center field job, and Pittsburgh will continue to leave unanswered the question of what Tike Redman will be when he grows up. I'm not a Redman fan, but he's 27 and cheap and taking up space on their 40 man, so why don't they let him play and figure out if he's worth the roster spot?

Just for fun, I ran a couple of lineup projections based on who is likely to start for the club (thanks to Alex Ciepley for the nifty little toy), one with Redman in the leadoff spot, and one with Singleton at the top (I don't know that they'll be leadoff men, but they're as good a bet as anyone else since Jason Kendall eschews the job). I used the numbers contained in the 2004 PECOTA projections to power these simulations. Here's what it spit out:

Losing ten runs over the course of a year doesn't sound like a lot, but that's worth about one win. Not that one win will make a difference in Pittsburgh this season, but paying attention to these details is part of being a successful organization. Just think, if they could find ten run improvements at five positions, that could mean five wins, and while that still isn't enough to mean more than the difference between fourth and fifth place in 2004, thinking that way would pay dividends in the future. Too bad that's not what's happening here.

UPDATE:Welcome to me with egg on my face. I post this, and when I get around to looking at some baseball news this morning, I see that Chris Singleton was released. The report says he failed his physical, but no details regarding the reasons for failure were released. Even if Singleton was in stellar physical condition, this was right move to make.

At least Jason Bay is likely to start the year in left. Part of the Brian Giles deal along with Oliver Perez and well regarded lefty pitching prospect, Cory Stewart, Bay wasn't on anyone's radar until he got medieval on the PCL, posting a .303/.410/.541 line at AAA Portland. His 27 games in Pittsburgh at the end of the year implied it was no fluke, as he put up a .291/.423/.506 line in 79 at bats. That's not a lot of information to go off of, but Bay is 25 and if he's going to be worth something it's going to be right now, so the Bucs are finally doing the smart thing here and letting someone within the organization play.

Which brings us to another negative data point: first base. One would think that trading Randall Simon the first time would have shown Pittsburgh all the wonderful things that life could be, sans sausage. Yet, here he is again, bringing his smiling, rolly polly, Grape-Ape-sized strike zone to southwestern Pennsylvania. He brings very little of value to the table, and why anyone would choose him over pursuing Matt Stairs is beyond me.

Second base brings a little more happiness, as Freddy Sanchez joins the club as the only thing of worth garnered from the deadline deal that sent Jeff Suppan to the Red Sox. Sanchez is a fine prospect who John Sickels says profiles well defensively at second, and has a chance to be a batting champion someday. This makes Bobby Hill's inclusion as the player to be named in the deal that sent Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton to the Cubs all the more puzzling. It may work out for the best, though, as Sanchez' recovery from off-season surgery to remove a bone spur from his right ankle could last into May. There may be some question marks at the start of the year, but this looks to be one position where the Buccos are set for a while.

Another position that's locked up is shortstop. The Pirates are very happy with the wrong Wilson, as Jack is in the organization's good graces despite his obvious inability to hit. The one thing Wilson can do is field his position, although not nearly as well as hyped (his defensive numbers at BP put him right around league average). Inexplicably, he won his arbitration hearing, garnering $1.85M instead of the $1.4M the Pirates offered. It's another sign that the process is random, and the Bucs have two more years of this to look forward to, unless they decide to sign him to a longer-term deal. Neither idea sounds very good, but working with Wilson year by year makes more sense than binding your fate over a period of years to the hope that his bat will turn from styrofoam to wood.

Speaking of wood, Chris Stynes brings his glove of oak and bat of balsa to the Pirates' third base job, and unless Bobby Hill gets converted to the hot corner, he'll play there all year long. That's 130-140 games of scrappy, red-assed, wacky-batting-stance goodness. Get your season tickets now!

Jason Kendall is a fine catcher. His defense won't conjure images of the late-90's iteration of Ivan Rodriguez, but he's a solid choice for the second spot in the batting order, hitting for average, making good contact, and even taking the occasional walk. If he was making reasonable money, it's conceivable that he could end his career in the yellow and black.

Of course, his contract isn't reasonable, having been signed at the height of the salary boom. The $7.5M Kendall is owed this year is already too much for a thirty year-old slap-hitting catcher with over 9,000 innings on his knees, but it's nothing compared to the $9.5M, $10.5M, and $12.5M he's owed in 2005-2007. The Pirates have already been trying to get out from under this misguided example of front office largesse, but any suitors have been insistent that the Bucs pick up a significant amount of the tab, and thus far, Dave Littlefield has proved unwilling to eat $20M or more just to say he got something done.

He may not have a choice much longer. Kendall will be in another uniform by the end of the year; the Pirates just can't afford to keep him. But it will take a truly desperate team to pay more than half of this deal, and then the Pirates can't count on getting any usable talent in return. Littlefield's record in snagging minor league goodness for major league albatrosses hasn't been good of late anyway, so Pittsburgh fans should hope that someone out there opens their wallet.

Starting Pitchers

These guys aren't world beaters, but they're five solid to good pitchers, with one in Kris Benson who has a good shot at beating his projection, and another in Oliver Perez who has a chance to be the leader of the staff one day. They aren't the Cubs or Astros, but this group has a chance to outproduce the other three staffs in the division.

Ryan Vogelsong is available in case someone goes down, but he isn't the man the Pirates want to see with the ball. He's a passable insurance policy, but if he gets more than 5-10 starts during the year, something has gone horribly wrong. In order for the Buccos to keep from embarrassing themselves, they need something approaching thirty outings from each of their starters. Help is on the way from the minors, but most of their young arms won't see PNC Park until 2005 or 2006, so these are the men who will have to do the job. No Cy Young Awards forthcoming this year, but I have to believe that teams like the Braves are looking at this staff with uncharacteristic envy.

Bullpen

This is going to be a bad bullpen. How do I know? Mark Guthrie should be the most reliable man out of this group. Tell a Cub fan Guthrie is his best reliever and you'll see someone with a month's worth of night sweats, and that's after you say, "just kidding." Don't believe me? Let's look at the career ERA+, garnered from the excellent baseball-reference.com, of the seven most likely Pirate pen-mates.

Gee, Derek, you're right. That isn't very pretty. But what about recent history? How did these fine gentlemen fare last year?

Well, here we go, but don't say I didn't warn you.

That's right, the two pitchers who performed the worst last year according to ERA+ are the two competing for the capital "C" closer job. What I really want to know is, what do the baseball gods have against Pennsylvania that they continue to blight her with Jose Mesa? Anyway, what is it I said before? Oh, yeah.

This is going to be a bad bullpen.

The Bench

We've had grassroots movements to free Erubiel Durazo and Johan Santana, and now I think it's Craig Wilson's turn. Since coming to the Majors, he's done nothing but hit, yet the Pirates consistently refuse to give him the at bats he deserves. Admittedly, Wilson doesn't have a defensive position where he excels, but he can play either outfield corner or first base passably, and looking at a list of players who have blocked him or shared time over the last three years makes the blood boil.

Kevin Young, Rob Mackowiak, Armando Rios, John Vander Wal, Derek Bell, and Randal Simon have all been in Wilson's way at some point in the last three years. Not one of them has been superior to Wilson during that time, and now, on the cusp of a season when he could finally expect to get the playing time he deserves, the roadblock has been thrown up again, this time in the forms of Raul Mondesi and the second coming of the Sausage King.

Signings like this would be fine if Dave Littlefield didn't have a better, younger player around, and if he could be expected to trade the signees for something useful around the deadline. Of course, Wilson is younger and better, and Littlefield's record on flipping fungibles for goodies is uninspiring. Besides, short a crane and a giant, titanium pancake turner, I don't think flipping Randall Simon is physically possible.

If the rest of the Pittsburgh bench has a discernable function, it's to make the starters look less appalling, and as lofty as the goal may seem, this group is up to the task.

I've mentioned Bobby Hill earlier, and while he's got a shot at coming out of camp with the starting second base job, the question is what will happen when Freddy Sanchez is ready to go. If he stays with the team, he'll be the best bat off the bench besides Craig Wilson, and that might be the way to go with Hill. The other two options are to trade him, or let him learn third base. The first option won't garner anything in return, and the second, while interesting based on the team's talent base at the hot corner, doesn't fit well with Hill's skillset at the plate. Not that the Pirates have any legitimate alternatives. He's looking more and more like a tweener, and using him in a utility role might be the best thing for all involved.

Others in the infield mix include Rob Mackowiak, who isn't likely to go anywhere since he can play both infield and outfield, and Abraham Nunez. Mackowiak isn't great with the stick, but he's better than Jack Wilson, and he's the kind of player who's versatility can be useful as long as he doesn't get more than 200 at bats. Not the case with Nunez, though. He doesn't get on base, doesn't have power, and doesn't hit for average. He is hopeless at the plate, and the only thing that keeps him in a Major League job is the fact that he's the only player on the roster that can back up Jack Wilson at shortstop. He'll be on the team.

Daryle Ward continues to get jobs based on the hope that his failed prospectdom will turn into a story of redemption, like Seabiscuit or The Rookie or Happy Gilmore. Unfortunately, Ward's career is looking more like an episode of Gilligan's Island, and guess who's the Skipper? I wish I could say he'll get off the island, but like those crazy castaways, he just doesn't have what it takes. Although theoretically capable of playing the outfield, he's more physically suited to first base and the requisite thud-inducing fall to his right.

This year's designated catch and throw guy is Humberto Cota. Backup receivers don't mean much when Jason Kendall's around, since he tends to catch all but a handful of games. He may come into play if Kendall gets traded, though, and that means one less useful bat in the lineup. He's young and cheap, which is good, but if thrust into a full-time job, his benchiness will become more apparent than ever.

The Gist

This team is really a mess. The organization's strength is in starting pitching, both at the major and minor league level, but everything else is hit and miss at best. Jason Bay and Freddie Sanchez seem to have the team's goodwill, but they are the only young position players who are so blessed. Those two could be part of the foundation of the next good Pirates team, but there are a lot of holes to fill, and with the organization's financial constraints, they will have to be filled with internal candidates, of which there are not nearly enough. Good drafts and savvy trades could get Pittsburgh a taste of success, but even doing all the right things won't bring that good team for a long time.

I've only seen the first two innings of the game, but since I'm unlikely to see more until I watch my recording of it tonight, and there won't be many regulars playing the rest of the way, now's a good a time to post some quick thoughts.

Happy Things

Despite giving up three runs, Matt Clement looked good. It was a tough lineup for him, with only two hitters facing him from the right side, but he had decent control of his stuff and managed to induce a lot of ground balls. It was nice to see him use his slider on the inner half against a couple of the lefties, especially Bonds, who he got to hit a chopper in front of the plate. Out of the eleven men he faced, only one ball could really be described as "hard hit," and that was a lineout to right. I would have liked to see a strikeout or two, but for a first spring outing, it's all I could have asked for.

One good spring at bat does not a season make, but Corey Patterson had an excellent first trip to the plate. He got well ahead in the count at 3-0 against Kirk Rueter, the type of junk tossing lefty who usually ties him in knots, and roped the 3-2 pitch over the fence. He never looked fooled, and didn't swing at anything stupid. It was exactly what I would have asked to see out of Corey, and while I know I shouldn't get too excited, I firmly believe he will be the key to this offense, so every positive I see in the early going will likely be magnified in my mind.

Beefs

Todd Walker is going to give me a heart attack. He started the game at second, giving me the chance to see first hand how he earned his lead glove reputation, and he didn't disappoint on that score. His range was poor, his arm was weak, and he totally misplayed an infield pop-up; first breaking back, then stopping completely, then finally managing to lumber in the direction of the play, only to miss the ball as he slid feet first. Total bush league stuff, and it gives me pause about letting him play the field at all this year. I know, just like Corey's good at bat, this is one spring game, but believe me, if you had seen him out there, you'd be traumatized too.

I don't know how many of you saw this, but the chopper that got Bonds out in the first also featured one of my pet peeves from last year: the lollipop pitcher's throw to first. There was an epidemic of this on the team in 2003, and while it's infuriating enough to see it in season, it's especially disconcerting to see it in a spring training game. What else are these contests for, if not to practice things you're not comfortable with? Here's to hoping someone works the entire pitching staff on this and gets the problem fixed for April.

Nothing else of note went on in the first two frames, but it sure was nice to see some Cubs baseball again. I just noticed that Zambrano went in after I left, but I don't know what the details are like on the outing. If I see something to talk about later, you bet it'll be here.

Okay, that's not entirely true. I'm putting the finishing touches on Part II of the Know Your Enemy series, and that will show up first thing tomorrow. Rest your eyes, because it looks like it's a long one.

I had started to write something on the growing performance enhancer controversy (I think there's a clause in the "Baseball Blogger's Code of Conduct" that says when a story gets this big, I have to comment), but others are doing it better right now, and I'm not interested in writing a slapdash piece just to say I did it.

Instead, I'm going to use today to watch some baseball. Our boys are on the tube this afternoon, thanks to ESPN, and I intend to avail myself of the opportunity to stare at the screen with eyes aglow, imagining myself there with them, sitting in the Arizona sunshine. I can't think of a better way to spend a chilly, mid-western, mid-March, mid-day. Can you?

Another day, another awesome post from Alex Ciepley. Me, I can't think of an angle on Prior's injury, so I leave it alone. Alex, he just wakes up and nails it, then throws in some bonus stuff just to rub it in. If you're here, you've probably read it already, but if you haven't, go do it now.

I mean right now.

Stop reading this.

Seriously, just click the link.

Do it!

Fine, then I'll go.

I'll be doing a full preview of the Pirates for the Know Your Enemy series on Friday, but I couldn't let this pass without comment.

It's the work of Brian O'Neill of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, also known as The Stats Geek. In my previous, though limited, exposure to his work, I'd found him to be a welcome change; his occasional use of logic easily separating him from other fishwrap scribes. But this time, he left his logic in his locker.

The piece attempts to explore if Craig Wilson deserves a full time job. In it, O'Neill provides four reasons for his argument, which would be excellent if the reasons weren't contradictory with the argument resolving to a resounding maybe.

One of his rationalizations revolves around the acquisition of Randall Simon as a platoon partner, and another around Wilson's ability in the field. He concludes that Simon was a silly acquisition when you could have kept Matt Stairs around, and that Wilson isn't so bad with the glove. I'm not sure why the Simon jabs get in here (he fails to fully relate it to Wilson's status), but they are certainly appropriate, and while O'Neill uses the unfortunate Range Factor statistic to tell us that Wilson is a passable outfielder, I've seen other metrics, like those at Baseball Prospectus, that back up the assertion as well.

So, we have one point that may not belong, and one point in Wilson's favor. The other two argue against using Wilson full time, but I think I can help with that. Let's look at point the first:

Why sign right fielder Raul Mondesi, a right-handed batter like Wilson, if he is only going to take Wilson's playing time away?

The short answer can be found on the Web site baseball-reference.com. Borrowing on a concept developed by baseball numbers guru Bill James, this site allows you to punch in a player's name and find the player he is most like in baseball history. The match for Mondesi is Reggie Sanders.

O'Neill is, of course, referring to Similarity Scores. I like Similarity Scores. Similarity Scores are fun. Other fun things are Jenga, Waterslides, and Whirlyball, but you won't see me confusing them with objective analysis.

In the last three years, Raul Mondesi's batting line has been .251/.330/.456, while Reggie Sanders' has been .265/.335/.521. If you want Reggie Sanders, I would suggest getting the real deal.

Point the second finally deals directly with the subject of the piece. Here's the quote:

Unfortunately, most pitchers are right-handed, a species against which Wilson has considerably less success. His numbers in 202 at-bats against right-handers were .238/.320/.416. It's great that Wilson hit left-handers harder than Gary Sheffield hits them, but against right-handers, Wilson does a passable impression of Kevin Young.

Which is why you need Mondesi, because he'll hit better against right-handers, yes?

Ooops. Those are three years of numbers against righties, which tell us more than 202 at bats do, and Wilson comes out on top. It's awfully close, though, so maybe Mondesi does more damage against lefties.

Or, maybe not. Granted, Mondesi performs well against port-siders, but what Wilson does to them is illegal in seven states. You can learn the name of one of those states by seeing where Shawn Estes pitches this year.

The idea that anyone else on the Pirates roster deserves time over Wilson is patently ridiculous. Maybe Mr. O'Neill was handed an assignment by his editor and told to make some sense, any sense, out of Wilson's likely lack of playing time. I hope that's the case because he deserves a shot, at least according to this stats geek.